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February 7, 2006 - Boiling Frogs in Oil

I've just returned from a lecture that John Sewell, the former Mayor of Toronto gave on the history of the Super Highways in the Greater Toronto area, and how they shaped growth in the region. John's talk brought several themes to the forefront: what would Toronto look like if growth hadn't been driven by highway expansion, but instead by an effective commuter rail system and municipal transit? While planners going back as far as the 30s saw the need for a balanced transportation system and the need to protect environmental features of the landscape. Some documnets make reference to preserving the shady trees and riverbanks of the Upper Don River... oops! Apparently that document didn't make it into departmental circulation.

While John's talk was interesting, as usual, some of the best discussion happened afterwards. Sarah and I ended up having a chat with Steve Munro from Rocketriders, a local public transit advocacy group, and one of the pioneers from the Streetcars For Toronto Committee in the early 70s, that convinced City Hall to hang onto Toronto's iconic fleet of streetcars. Anyhow, we discussed one of the more pressing topics in some planning circles: the concept of the oil peak. While all of us agreed (rationality dictates that it would be hard not to) that oil production has peaked or will soon do so, we had an interesting debate about how the oil peak will actually play out.

As far as I can tell, there are two ways that the oil peak can realistically play out, given the political circumstances we live in:

1. Gas prices will creep gradually, and the vast majority of society will adapt. While those who have a marginal existence will ultimately be forced to give up their cars, most will adapt, given that we are a relatively affluent society. People will gripe about it, and maybe even downsize to more fuel efficient cars, but perish the thought of not being able to drive a half kilometre to get milk! As Sarah pointed out, if you put a frog in cold water, it will not notice it is being boiled alive.
2. A variant on the first theme. People will cantankerously adapt to rising oil prices, but state intervention will lead to sudden disruptions in the way individuals lead their lives. Just as during the Second World War, rationing will likely appear, as an increasingly competitive global economy comes to need every last drop of dwindling oil supplies. Major shifts in the world economy will lead to political instability in regions and the constant threat of military struggle will threaten the stability of democracies, as a command economy of sorts arises to meet the needs of an oil-hungry capitalism.

Neither option is all that appealing, and I would guess that both lead to ecological collapse, and Hobbes' proposition that life is "nasty, brutish and short" would likely be legitimized. Is there any way out of this?

I don't know.

As a society, we've become fairly adept at avoiding grappling with major issues, whether it be oil, the environment, minority rights or any other host of issues.

At the same time however, we have shown resilience before in the face of adversity. World wars showed that we could withstand deprivation and make sacrifices for a greater good, whether that be giving up luxury foodstuffs for the front, or riding public transit in record numbers to conserve gasoline for the war effort (this may be something that we'll need to repeat). As an absolute minimum, we;d likely need to radically change our spatial patterns, so that we live in more compact centres that are based on public transit and walkability. This need not be a radical shift in how we live: Sewell estimates that to create neighbourhoods that are supportive of light rail transit, we only need 20-25 units of housing per acre, roughly that of many of Toronto's older neighbourhoods like Parkdale or The Annex. We'd also need to return to sustenance based on local food production, and mass conversion to sustainable energy sources.

These measures likely constitute a bear minimum. What many oil peak adherents don't always recognize is that oil is also a key ingredient in other industrial products ranging from computer chips to plastics to agricultural fertilizer. This still leaves unanswered the question of whether we can survive as a society without oil.